And expect the rest of the conservative Democrats to hold out until pretty much the last minute too because it’s in their interests to do so, both to maximize their leverage and to wait as long as possible to commit themselves, getting as good a sense as they can of which way the political winds are blowing. This was a tightrope walk from the start. But I don’t think the rope any wobblier today than it was yesterday.

I think that’s a pretty good assessment. Marshall goes on to remind readers that much of this bluster may not translate procedurally. Cloture requires 60 votes, but passage only requires 50 votes. In theory (critics will trash this theory as politically naive, but I persist) Joe Lieberman, Blanche Lincoln, Mary Landrieu, Evan Bayh, Ben Nelson, and a handful of others could well argue against the merits of the bill and even vow that they won’t vote for it (in which case it only helps their case to raise the rhetoric now early and often) yet still allow the bill to advance procedurally to an up-or-down vote before voting against.

That’s the path to compromise that I see among Senate Dems right now. Reid only has to get enough votes for cloture, or moving the bill forward, and then he can let his conservatives cover their backsides by voting against the final bill. This in fact may be why Reid says “Joe Lieberman is the least of Harry Reid’s problems.”

This solution gets all parties to where they need to be. Blanche Lincoln could say I don’t like this bill and I don’t think the American people will like this bill, but that’s for the Senate to decide in an open vote. In this way she could explain her advancement of the bill and then vote against it and declare that she voted against a bill that was bad for her constituents. By that time it won’t matter to Reid and the White House, because 50 votes are already got. Republicans will of course make out that Dems who voted for cloture voted for the bill. Practically speaking, that may be true enough to be damaging. Factually speaking, however, those Dems will still have the vote against on the record and will readily bring this up during campaigns.