Colorado Progressive

Greg Giroux at CQ Politics lays out a few of the dynamics at play today in Colorado as the campaign for Michael Bennet’s US Senate seat heats up another notch with tonight’s caucus. By all accounts, Jane Norton appears to have the early Republican nomination all but sewed up. Barring any hiccups, she’ll be the GOP’s answer to Bennet, and nothing that happens today is likely to change that reality.

Democrats, similarly, will likely retain Bennet on the ballot this November, and nothing that happens to today will probably affect that outcome too much. But that should not yet be taken for granted. Clearly, Bennet is the leading fundraiser against a stagnating Andrew Romanoff and enjoys the advantages that accompany incumbency. At the same time, Romanoff is positioning himself as the outsider looking in–a strange twist for the former House Speaker and erstwhile golden boy of Colorado Democratic politics–during a year that poses significant challenges for incumbents, namely the messy health care reform issue that has paralyzed Washington and polarized the nation.

Here’s Giroux on the Romanoff-Bennet caucus stakes:

Political analysts said Romanoff, who badly trails Bennet in fundraising, needs to perform very well at the caucuses to gain traction for the difficult undertaking of unseating a senator in a primary.

“My current assumption is that Romanoff needs to win [the caucuses] … to credibly make the argument that ‘I’m the grass-roots guy,’ ” said independent Colorado pollster Floyd Ciruli.

Eric Sondermann, an independent political analyst in Denver, described the caucuses as “a home game for Andrew Romanoff” because he’s concentrated heavily on securing the support of the sliver of Democrats who will participate in them. He expects Romanoff to do well.

“If he does not fare well [Tuesday] in the caucuses, it’s hard to understand what the ongoing rationale for his candidacy is,” Sondermann said.

Katy Atkinson, a Denver-based political consultant, said that the caucuses are far less important for Bennet than for Romanoff because “Bennet has the money to be able to run a primary campaign, and Romanoff needs the momentum that a convention win would give him to help him raise more money.”

Bennet’s campaign is targeting the caucuses to build the full-fledged statewide political organization he lacked after coming to the Senate as an unelected member with no experience in elective office.

So Romanoff is in must-do mode, and Bennet is simply looking to build the momentum and recognition he never needed to win his seat in the first place.  That makes tonight’s outing particularly tough on Romanoff, who, to be honest, has done little to kick up awareness of his candidacy outside a few inside politics circles.

For the sake of argument and variety, and without tendering an endorsement, I urge Democratic caucus goers to step up tonight for Andrew Romanoff, if only to force Michael Bennet to define himself yet more clearly. Bennet is responding well under threat of a primary challenge, with strong support of a public option for health insurance reform and with a slate of new rules introduced to reduce filibuster abuse, and that’s only good news for Colorado.

Additionally, Andrew Romanoff is an effective legislator and a likable politician. If he makes it through these early rounds of primary wrangling, I’m confident that he will bring to the discourse a number of key points and policy ideas that matter to the quality of state and national politics. It’s especially important now for Democrats to energize their politics once more on the validity of clear and constructive policy discussion. Let’s learn as much as we can and then vote on the best candidate.