Colorado Progressive

Health care reform has passed the House. Betsy Markey didn’t vote for it. My guess is she really must feel threatened up in Larimer County, despite–or perhaps because of–having been elected on the coattails of Barack Obama’s ‘08 sweep through the Front Range (Larimer Co. election results available here). To be sure, Markey’s opponent had dug herself into a pretty untenable position as a culture war politico, even for an incumbent, so the challenger had that in her favor. But I say “perhaps because of” the Obama factor because Markey is unlikely to enjoy the same voter turnout in 2010 without a presidential race to fan the fever, and thus will sweat a little more as the returns come in and voters remind Colorado that Larimer County doesn’t often elect Democrats.

Still, if fundraising is any indicator, Markey enjoys a comfortable advantage (that and, well, being the incumbent). The GOP has Markey on a list of vulnerable Dems in 2010, and it’s hard to know how much her vote is an attempt to burnish centrist credentials as a fiscal hawk (as opposed to really being a fiscal hawk and believing in her no vote). If anything, the vote confirms that Betsy Markey is courting Independents in northern Colorado. On such a tight nose count, I thought it unlikely that the House leadership would give quaky Dems any cover. Matt Yglesias disagrees, however, and sees room for a little wiggle. And who knows? Maybe the House leadership and the White House think Dems can keep Larimer County by letting Markey vote according to her constituents rather than imposing the party line.

Sure, I’m disappointed that Betsy Markey voted against history-making reform in U.S. health care. But a part of me really likes to think that this is one piece of a highly calculated formula for success over the long term. After all, the bill passed the House without Markey’s help. That battle is won, at least for today. We’ll look to Markey’s future votes, and to her campaign and results in 2010, to see whether or not the Democratic Party hasn’t actually been quite savvy in leaving Markey to vote with the public will in northern Colorado.